Updates on Harley and the Portfolio
Capital Allocation and Concentrated Bets
A few quick updates in this post.
Midlife Crisis or Capital Discipline?
My unhealthy Harley-Davidson obsession continues—clearly my midlife crisis is going full throttle. But it’s not just about buying a motorbike. No, no. If Harley stock does what I hope it does, I’m daydreaming of adding a yacht and a Ferrari to the mix. Let me dream a bit. 🙂
First Quarter Results: A Bloodbath… or Not?
Last week, Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) reported Q1 results. On the face of it, this is how you lose your shirt, not collect trophies:
Revenue down 27%, profits down 42%. Eesh.
And yet, I've been buying more stock this week.
No, this isn’t some “double down and hope” move—I save that kind of recklessness for my chess career. ♟️♟️
Instead, the investment is unfolding pretty much the way I expected.
Astute readers might recall: I estimated they’d do around $2.66/share, or $348M in earnings for the year. Q1 came in at $133M, which is right on pace.
But what’s more important is how the business behaved during a tough quarter:
$87M in buybacks this quarter alone—about 3% of the entire share base—despite the YoY profit drop.
Cash in hand grew 25%, and even shareholder equity nudged up by 0.5%.
The balance sheet got stronger, not weaker.
This was never meant to be a growth story. The Harley thesis was simple: if management sticks to disciplined capital allocation—particularly buybacks—then there’s value to be had. So far, they’re doing just that.
As long as it trades in the $22–$24 range, I’ll keep adding. 💸 💸
Portfolio Update: From Many to Few
In my last portfolio update, I talked about holding a low-conviction basket of names—positions I ultimately had no appetite to build. And as promised, I’ve now exited all of them.
That capital has been reallocated into two higher-conviction baskets:
My “India” basket
And the “Other Value” basket—featuring, you guessed it: Harley-Davidson and Stellantis
Among the exited positions, Fresenius was the standout, returning a solid 50% over two years since I last wrote about it. The rest? They just kept me in the game.
But this new, concentrated approach feels far more aligned with my temperament—fewer names, more conviction. The portfolio now holds just 19 tickers, three of which are India-focused ETFs. The remaining 16 companies have a median age of 106 years—talk about a truly "aged" approach to investing! ⏳⏳
The portfolio sheet has been updated to reflect the changes - as always check the caveats in the first tab before you check out the portfolio. Do you own due diligence (DYODD)!!
Until next time—Happy Investing!
Disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor and bear no fiduciary responsibility. This post is only for educational and entertainment purposes. Do your own due diligence before investing in any securities.